{
  "@context": "https://schema.org",
  "@type": "Dataset",
  "@id": "https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer#dataset",
  "name": "Main Street Buyer-Type Probability Model",
  "description": "Four-factor additive model producing a normalised probability distribution across five Main Street buyer types (Individual, Strategic, Search Fund, PE Consolidator, PE Platform). Factors are base market presence + per-industry affinity + SDE size fit + revenue fit (PE Platform only). Calibrated from IBBA Market Pulse buyer-type mix, BizBuySell Insight Report closing patterns, SBA 7(a) individual-buyer transaction data, EPI State of Owner Readiness, and Stanford Search Fund Study. 32 industries × 5 buyer types = 160-cell affinity matrix.",
  "url": "https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "datePublished": "2026-09-05",
  "dateModified": "2026-09-05",
  "isAccessibleForFree": true,
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "keywords": [
    "buyer type predictor",
    "who will buy my business",
    "predict my buyer",
    "main street M&A buyer types",
    "SBA buyer profile",
    "search fund criteria",
    "PE roll-up target",
    "strategic acquirer",
    "buyer probability model"
  ],
  "spatialCoverage": {
    "@type": "Place",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "temporalCoverage": "2025-01-01/2026-09-30",
  "creator": {
    "@type": "Organization",
    "name": "Your Exit Path (yourexitpath.com)",
    "url": "https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer"
  },
  "publisher": {
    "@type": "Organization",
    "name": "Your Exit Path (yourexitpath.com)",
    "url": "https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer"
  },
  "methodology": "Additive score across four factors (base market presence + industry fit + SDE size fit + revenue fit for PE Platform), normalised so buyer-type probabilities sum to 100%. Industry affinities calibrated from IBBA Market Pulse buyer-type mix, BizBuySell Insight Report closing patterns, and SBA 7(a) individual-buyer transaction data. SDE sweet-spots calibrated to published range guidance from PE firms and search-fund investment thesis papers.",
  "citation": "Predict My Buyer — Main Street Buyer-Type Probability Model (Your Exit Path, 2026). Retrieved from https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer. Licensed CC BY 4.0.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "IBBA Market Pulse (quarterly)",
      "publisher": "International Business Brokers Association",
      "url": "https://www.ibba.org/resource-center/industry-research/"
    },
    {
      "name": "BizBuySell Insight Report (quarterly)",
      "publisher": "BizBuySell",
      "url": "https://www.bizbuysell.com/insight-report/"
    },
    {
      "name": "SBA 7(a) Loan Program public data",
      "publisher": "U.S. Small Business Administration",
      "url": "https://www.sba.gov/document/report-7a-504-summary-data"
    },
    {
      "name": "State of Owner Readiness",
      "publisher": "Exit Planning Institute",
      "url": "https://exit-planning-institute.org/state-of-owner-readiness/"
    },
    {
      "name": "Stanford Search Fund Study",
      "publisher": "Stanford Graduate School of Business",
      "url": "https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/centers-initiatives/ces/research/search-funds"
    }
  ],
  "formula": {
    "description": "For each buyer type, raw score = baseWeight + industryAffinity[type][industry] + sdeAffinity(type, sde) + revenueModifier(type, revenue). Clamped to [0, 100]. Probabilities computed as clamped[type] / sum(clamped) * 100, rounded via largest-remainder method so all five probabilities sum to exactly 100%.",
    "sdeAffinity": "Piecewise linear. Inside the sweet spot: +30. Between acceptable minimum and sweet-spot minimum (or sweet-spot maximum and acceptable maximum): scales smoothly from +10 to +30. Outside acceptable entirely: -25.",
    "revenueModifier": "Applied only to PE Platform. Revenue >= $5M: +5. Revenue $3M-$5M: 0. Revenue < $3M: -15."
  },
  "buyerTypes": [
    {
      "slug": "individual",
      "name": "Individual buyer",
      "longName": "Individual owner-operator (SBA-financed)",
      "tagline": "A single acquirer buying to operate the business, typically with SBA 7(a) financing.",
      "description": "Individual buyers are corporate refugees, former operators, or first-time entrepreneurs using SBA 7(a) financing to acquire a business they'll run themselves. They dominate sub-$500K SDE transactions and every SBA-eligible industry. Their diligence is thorough but personal — they need to believe they can walk in on day one and keep the doors open.",
      "baseWeight": 30,
      "sdeSweetSpot": {
        "min": 100000,
        "max": 500000
      },
      "sdeAcceptable": {
        "min": 50000,
        "max": 1000000
      },
      "multipleLow": 2,
      "multipleHigh": 3,
      "dealSizeDescription": "$100K–$500K SDE sweet spot",
      "diligenceFocus": "Clean books, seller-dependency (can they run it?), and post-close transition training.",
      "typicalDaysToClose": "120–180 days",
      "financingProfile": "SBA 7(a) loan up to $5M; typical structure is 10% seller note + 10% buyer equity + 80% SBA."
    },
    {
      "slug": "strategic",
      "name": "Strategic",
      "longName": "Strategic / regional competitor",
      "tagline": "A regional competitor buying a book of business, customers, and technicians.",
      "description": "Strategic acquirers are already in your industry — either a bigger regional competitor rolling up market share or an adjacent business expanding services. They pay for customer overlap, gross margin, and technician retention. Deals close fast because they know the business already. Common in HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and restoration.",
      "baseWeight": 25,
      "sdeSweetSpot": {
        "min": 250000,
        "max": 3000000
      },
      "sdeAcceptable": {
        "min": 150000,
        "max": 5000000
      },
      "multipleLow": 2.8,
      "multipleHigh": 4,
      "dealSizeDescription": "$250K–$3M SDE sweet spot",
      "diligenceFocus": "Customer overlap, technician retention risk, and recurring maintenance revenue.",
      "typicalDaysToClose": "90–150 days",
      "financingProfile": "Cash from balance sheet or bank line of credit; occasional seller note for indemnification."
    },
    {
      "slug": "search_fund",
      "name": "Search fund",
      "longName": "Search fund (solo acquirer with institutional capital)",
      "tagline": "A single searcher backed by 10–15 institutional investors acquiring a business to run for 7–10 years.",
      "description": "Search funds are individual searchers (usually MBA graduates) backed by 10–15 institutional investors. They target one business, buy it, and run it as CEO for 7–10 years. They gravitate to recurring-revenue B2B businesses — IT services, distribution, accounting, insurance agencies, niche manufacturing. They pay premium multiples for management-ready businesses and are known for thoughtful, patient diligence.",
      "baseWeight": 15,
      "sdeSweetSpot": {
        "min": 500000,
        "max": 2000000
      },
      "sdeAcceptable": {
        "min": 300000,
        "max": 3000000
      },
      "multipleLow": 3,
      "multipleHigh": 5,
      "dealSizeDescription": "$500K–$2M SDE sweet spot",
      "diligenceFocus": "Recurring revenue mix, management team readiness for a new CEO, and defensible market position.",
      "typicalDaysToClose": "120–210 days",
      "financingProfile": "Investor equity + bank debt (often SBA-eligible). Structured with strong buyer-side protections."
    },
    {
      "slug": "consolidator",
      "name": "PE consolidator",
      "longName": "PE consolidator (bolt-on to existing platform)",
      "tagline": "A PE-backed platform adding another location or region to an established roll-up thesis.",
      "description": "PE consolidators are already running a platform in your industry and are looking for tuck-in acquisitions to add scale, geographic reach, or capability. They're active in HVAC, plumbing, dental, veterinary, home health, restoration, and IT services. They pay premium multiples but expect institutional-quality financials, tech-forward operations, and technicians willing to stay.",
      "baseWeight": 20,
      "sdeSweetSpot": {
        "min": 500000,
        "max": 3000000
      },
      "sdeAcceptable": {
        "min": 250000,
        "max": 5000000
      },
      "multipleLow": 3.5,
      "multipleHigh": 5.5,
      "dealSizeDescription": "$500K–$3M SDE sweet spot",
      "diligenceFocus": "Integration risk with the parent platform, technician / clinician retention, and EBITDA quality after add-backs.",
      "typicalDaysToClose": "90–150 days",
      "financingProfile": "Cash + rollover equity from the seller (typical 10–20%). Fast close because the platform has PE dry powder ready."
    },
    {
      "slug": "pe_platform",
      "name": "PE platform",
      "longName": "PE platform (new platform investment)",
      "tagline": "A PE firm buying an established business to build a new roll-up platform around it.",
      "description": "PE platform investors are looking for the anchor business of a new roll-up thesis — enough scale to justify the operating overhead of a PE partnership, plus a management team capable of executing bolt-on integrations. Typical deals are $5M+ revenue with $1M+ EBITDA. Industries with active platform theses include HVAC, dental, veterinary, home health, distribution, and IT services.",
      "baseWeight": 10,
      "sdeSweetSpot": {
        "min": 1500000,
        "max": 8000000
      },
      "sdeAcceptable": {
        "min": 1000000,
        "max": 15000000
      },
      "multipleLow": 5,
      "multipleHigh": 8,
      "dealSizeDescription": "$1.5M–$8M SDE sweet spot ($1M+ EBITDA)",
      "diligenceFocus": "Management depth (bench beyond the owner), growth story, add-on universe, and defensible moat.",
      "typicalDaysToClose": "150–240 days",
      "financingProfile": "PE equity + senior debt (often 4–5× EBITDA). Rollover equity from the seller is standard — often 15–30%."
    }
  ],
  "industries": [
    {
      "slug": "hvac",
      "name": "HVAC",
      "longName": "HVAC & refrigeration services",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "plumbing",
      "name": "Plumbing",
      "longName": "Plumbing services",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "electrical",
      "name": "Electrical",
      "longName": "Electrical contracting",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "landscaping",
      "name": "Landscaping",
      "longName": "Landscaping & lawn care",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "tree_service",
      "name": "Tree service",
      "longName": "Tree service & arboriculture",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "pest_control",
      "name": "Pest control",
      "longName": "Pest control services",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "pool_service",
      "name": "Pool service",
      "longName": "Pool service & maintenance",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "garage_door",
      "name": "Garage door",
      "longName": "Garage door install & repair",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "roofing",
      "name": "Roofing",
      "longName": "Roofing contractors",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "painting",
      "name": "Painting",
      "longName": "Painting contractors",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "restoration",
      "name": "Restoration",
      "longName": "Restoration & disaster recovery",
      "category": "Home services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "general_contractor",
      "name": "General contractor",
      "longName": "General contracting",
      "category": "Commercial trades"
    },
    {
      "slug": "specialty_contractor",
      "name": "Specialty contractor",
      "longName": "Specialty trade contracting",
      "category": "Commercial trades"
    },
    {
      "slug": "cleaning_services",
      "name": "Cleaning services",
      "longName": "Commercial & residential cleaning",
      "category": "Commercial trades"
    },
    {
      "slug": "junk_removal",
      "name": "Junk removal",
      "longName": "Junk removal & hauling",
      "category": "Commercial trades"
    },
    {
      "slug": "restaurant_single",
      "name": "Restaurant (single)",
      "longName": "Single-unit restaurant",
      "category": "Consumer"
    },
    {
      "slug": "restaurant_franchise",
      "name": "Restaurant (franchise)",
      "longName": "Franchise restaurant operator",
      "category": "Consumer"
    },
    {
      "slug": "brick_and_mortar_retail",
      "name": "Retail (brick & mortar)",
      "longName": "Brick-and-mortar retail",
      "category": "Consumer"
    },
    {
      "slug": "ecommerce",
      "name": "E-commerce",
      "longName": "E-commerce & DTC brands",
      "category": "Consumer"
    },
    {
      "slug": "accounting",
      "name": "Accounting",
      "longName": "Accounting & bookkeeping",
      "category": "Professional services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "law_firm",
      "name": "Law firm",
      "longName": "Law firm",
      "category": "Professional services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "marketing_agency",
      "name": "Marketing agency",
      "longName": "Marketing & creative agency",
      "category": "Professional services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "insurance_agency",
      "name": "Insurance agency",
      "longName": "Insurance agency",
      "category": "Professional services"
    },
    {
      "slug": "it_services",
      "name": "IT services / MSP",
      "longName": "Managed IT services (MSP)",
      "category": "Technology"
    },
    {
      "slug": "saas",
      "name": "SaaS",
      "longName": "B2B SaaS",
      "category": "Technology"
    },
    {
      "slug": "dental_practice",
      "name": "Dental practice",
      "longName": "Dental practice",
      "category": "Healthcare"
    },
    {
      "slug": "veterinary",
      "name": "Veterinary",
      "longName": "Veterinary clinic",
      "category": "Healthcare"
    },
    {
      "slug": "home_health",
      "name": "Home health",
      "longName": "Home health & senior care",
      "category": "Healthcare"
    },
    {
      "slug": "food_manufacturing",
      "name": "Food manufacturing",
      "longName": "Food & beverage manufacturing",
      "category": "Manufacturing & distribution"
    },
    {
      "slug": "manufacturing",
      "name": "Manufacturing",
      "longName": "Light manufacturing",
      "category": "Manufacturing & distribution"
    },
    {
      "slug": "distribution",
      "name": "Distribution",
      "longName": "Wholesale distribution",
      "category": "Manufacturing & distribution"
    },
    {
      "slug": "other",
      "name": "Other",
      "longName": "Other Main Street business",
      "category": "Other"
    }
  ],
  "industryAffinityMatrix": [
    {
      "industry": "hvac",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -15,
        "strategic": 25,
        "search_fund": 10,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "plumbing",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -10,
        "strategic": 25,
        "search_fund": 5,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 20
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "electrical",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -10,
        "strategic": 25,
        "search_fund": 5,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 20
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "landscaping",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": 0,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "tree_service",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 10,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": -5,
        "consolidator": 10,
        "pe_platform": -5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "pest_control",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 5,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 15
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "pool_service",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 20,
        "strategic": 10,
        "search_fund": -10,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": -15
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "garage_door",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 20,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": -5,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": -10
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "roofing",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 25,
        "search_fund": -5,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "painting",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 15,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": -10,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": -10
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "restoration",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -5,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": 10,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "general_contractor",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": 0,
        "consolidator": 10,
        "pe_platform": 5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "specialty_contractor",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": 5,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 10
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "cleaning_services",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 25,
        "strategic": 10,
        "search_fund": -5,
        "consolidator": 10,
        "pe_platform": -5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "junk_removal",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 25,
        "strategic": 10,
        "search_fund": -10,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": -15
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "restaurant_single",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 25,
        "strategic": -5,
        "search_fund": -20,
        "consolidator": -15,
        "pe_platform": -25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "restaurant_franchise",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 10,
        "search_fund": -10,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": -15
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "brick_and_mortar_retail",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 20,
        "strategic": -5,
        "search_fund": -10,
        "consolidator": -10,
        "pe_platform": -20
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "ecommerce",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": -5,
        "search_fund": 10,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": 5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "accounting",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 10,
        "strategic": 10,
        "search_fund": 25,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 5
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "law_firm",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 15,
        "strategic": 5,
        "search_fund": 20,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": -10
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "marketing_agency",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 5,
        "search_fund": 20,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 10
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "insurance_agency",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -5,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 25,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 20
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "it_services",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -10,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 25,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "saas",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -20,
        "strategic": 10,
        "search_fund": 25,
        "consolidator": 20,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "dental_practice",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -15,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 10,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "veterinary",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -15,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 10,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "home_health",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -20,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 15,
        "consolidator": 25,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "food_manufacturing",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -15,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": 15,
        "consolidator": 20,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "manufacturing",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -15,
        "strategic": 20,
        "search_fund": 15,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 25
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "distribution",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": -5,
        "strategic": 15,
        "search_fund": 20,
        "consolidator": 15,
        "pe_platform": 20
      }
    },
    {
      "industry": "other",
      "affinities": {
        "individual": 5,
        "strategic": 5,
        "search_fund": 0,
        "consolidator": 5,
        "pe_platform": 5
      }
    }
  ],
  "distribution": [
    {
      "@type": "DataDownload",
      "encodingFormat": "application/json",
      "contentUrl": "https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer/data.json"
    }
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}