Methodology
How we built
the map.
Reviewed by Rob Ismoilov · M&A AdvisorWhat each number means
Formulas + constants.
The dataset module exports these constants directly so this page and the interactive map stay locked to the same values. If we change a constant, this page updates on the next deploy.
Boomer-owned firms
boomerOwnedFirms = totalEmployerFirms × (boomerOwnedPercent ÷ 100)
Rounded to the nearest 100.
- totalEmployerFirms
- Census SUSB 2022 (directly measured)
- boomerOwnedPercent
- Census ABS 2022 direct measurement for 22 states; 29 states interpolated from Census population age × ABS national correlation.
Trapped-wealth range
trappedWealth = boomerOwnedFirms × TRANSITION_RATE × [AVG_EXIT_VALUE_LOW, AVG_EXIT_VALUE_HIGH]
TRANSITION_RATE = 0.35 (35%). AVG_EXIT_VALUE_LOW = $250K, AVG_EXIT_VALUE_HIGH = $750K. Reported as a low-to-high range only.
- TRANSITION_RATE
- Exit Planning Institute State of Owner Readiness — roughly 35% of boomer-owned Main Street businesses go to a market-transition versus family succession, ESOP, or distressed wind-down.
- AVG_EXIT_VALUE range
- IBBA Market Pulse + BizBuySell Insight Report quarterly aggregates 2025 – Q3 2026. Typical Main Street enterprise value for sub-$5M revenue businesses.
We deliberately do not publish point-dollar estimates per state. A number like "$450M in Dallas plumbing businesses" stacks three assumptions (transition rate, enterprise-value distribution, industry mix) that each carry their own ± error, and multiplying them produces a figure that looks precise but isn't. Reporting the wealth range keeps the uncertainty visible while still giving a journalist a citable figure.
Primary sources
The six sources we pull from.
Every source is public, free to access, and periodically republished. Each state row cites the sources most directly covering it.
Statistics of U.S. Businesses (SUSB), 2022
susb-2022U.S. Census Bureau · 2022 (published 2024)
Annual tabulation of employer businesses by state, industry (NAICS), and employment size class. Primary source for `totalEmployerFirms`.
Visit sourceAnnual Business Survey (ABS), 2022
abs-2022U.S. Census Bureau · 2022 reference year (published 2024)
Owner-level demographics of employer businesses — including age, race, ethnicity, and veteran status. Primary source for `boomerOwnedPercent` and `seniorOwnedPercent`.
Visit sourceCounty Business Patterns (CBP), 2022
cbp-2022U.S. Census Bureau · 2022 reference year (published 2024)
County- and state-level counts of establishments by NAICS. Used to identify the top Main Street industry per state.
Visit sourceState of Owner Readiness
epiExit Planning Institute · Longitudinal survey, most recent 2023 wave
Owner-transition intent, timeline, and successor preferences. Source for the 35% market-transition rate applied to boomer-owned firms.
Visit sourceMarket Pulse (quarterly)
ibbaInternational Business Brokers Association · Quarterly, 2025–2026
Practitioner survey of transacted Main Street multiples and terms. Source for the $250K–$750K typical enterprise-value range.
Visit sourceInsight Report (quarterly)
bizbuysellBizBuySell · Quarterly, 2025–2026
Median sale price + revenue + cash flow across BizBuySell listings and closings. Cross-reference for the enterprise-value range.
Visit sourceConfidence bands per state
Directly measured vs. interpolated.
The Census Bureau's Annual Business Survey publishes owner-age breakouts for a rotating subset of states. For the 22 states below marked ABS direct, the 55+ percent is measured from that survey. For the 29 states marked interpolated, the 55+ percent is derived from the state's Census population age distribution combined with the ABS national owner-age correlation. Our interpolated values sit within a few percentage points of the national 50.5% mean and reflect known demographic tilts (retiree-heavy states run higher, urban young-population states run lower).
| State | Region | Total firms | 55+ % | 65+ % | Boomer-owned | Wealth range | Age source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama AL | South | 90,000 | 51.0% | 25.5% | 45,900 | $4.0B–$12.0B | interpolated |
Alaska AK | West | 20,000 | 48.0% | 22.0% | 9,600 | $0.8B–$2.5B | interpolated |
Arizona AZ | West | 130,000 | 51.0% | 26.5% | 66,300 | $5.8B–$17.4B | ABS direct |
Arkansas AR | South | 60,000 | 51.5% | 26.0% | 30,900 | $2.7B–$8.1B | interpolated |
California CA | West | 900,000 | 47.0% | 22.0% | 423,000 | $37.0B–$111.0B | ABS direct |
Colorado CO | West | 155,000 | 48.0% | 22.5% | 74,400 | $6.5B–$19.5B | ABS direct |
Connecticut CT | Northeast | 85,000 | 52.0% | 26.5% | 44,200 | $3.9B–$11.6B | ABS direct |
Delaware DE | South | 25,000 | 52.0% | 26.5% | 13,000 | $1.1B–$3.4B | interpolated |
District of Columbia DC | South | 25,000 | 41.0% | 17.0% | 10,300 | $0.9B–$2.7B | interpolated |
Florida FL | South | 555,000 | 55.0% | 30.0% | 305,300 | $26.7B–$80.1B | ABS direct |
Georgia GA | South | 220,000 | 49.0% | 23.5% | 107,800 | $9.4B–$28.3B | ABS direct |
Hawaii HI | West | 30,000 | 52.0% | 27.0% | 15,600 | $1.4B–$4.1B | interpolated |
Idaho ID | West | 45,000 | 48.0% | 23.0% | 21,600 | $1.9B–$5.7B | interpolated |
Illinois IL | Midwest | 275,000 | 51.0% | 25.0% | 140,300 | $12.3B–$36.8B | ABS direct |
Indiana IN | Midwest | 130,000 | 52.0% | 26.5% | 67,600 | $5.9B–$17.7B | interpolated |
Iowa IA | Midwest | 80,000 | 54.0% | 28.5% | 43,200 | $3.8B–$11.3B | interpolated |
Kansas KS | Midwest | 65,000 | 53.0% | 27.5% | 34,500 | $3.0B–$9.1B | interpolated |
Kentucky KY | South | 85,000 | 52.0% | 26.0% | 44,200 | $3.9B–$11.6B | interpolated |
Louisiana LA | South | 110,000 | 51.0% | 25.5% | 56,100 | $4.9B–$14.7B | interpolated |
Maine ME | Northeast | 40,000 | 57.0% | 32.0% | 22,800 | $2.0B–$6.0B | interpolated |
Maryland MD | South | 130,000 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 65,000 | $5.7B–$17.1B | ABS direct |
Massachusetts MA | Northeast | 165,000 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 82,500 | $7.2B–$21.7B | ABS direct |
Michigan MI | Midwest | 190,000 | 52.0% | 26.0% | 98,800 | $8.6B–$25.9B | ABS direct |
Minnesota MN | Midwest | 130,000 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 65,000 | $5.7B–$17.1B | ABS direct |
Mississippi MS | South | 55,000 | 52.0% | 26.5% | 28,600 | $2.5B–$7.5B | interpolated |
Missouri MO | Midwest | 130,000 | 52.5% | 26.5% | 68,300 | $6.0B–$17.9B | interpolated |
Montana MT | West | 35,000 | 53.0% | 28.0% | 18,600 | $1.6B–$4.9B | interpolated |
Nebraska NE | Midwest | 50,000 | 53.0% | 27.5% | 26,500 | $2.3B–$7.0B | interpolated |
Nevada NV | West | 65,000 | 49.0% | 23.5% | 31,900 | $2.8B–$8.4B | interpolated |
New Hampshire NH | Northeast | 40,000 | 53.0% | 28.0% | 21,200 | $1.9B–$5.6B | interpolated |
New Jersey NJ | Northeast | 220,000 | 52.0% | 26.0% | 114,400 | $10.0B–$30.0B | ABS direct |
New Mexico NM | West | 45,000 | 51.0% | 26.0% | 23,000 | $2.0B–$6.0B | interpolated |
New York NY | Northeast | 500,000 | 51.0% | 24.5% | 255,000 | $22.3B–$66.9B | ABS direct |
North Carolina NC | South | 200,000 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 100,000 | $8.8B–$26.3B | ABS direct |
North Dakota ND | Midwest | 20,000 | 52.0% | 27.0% | 10,400 | $0.9B–$2.7B | interpolated |
Ohio OH | Midwest | 220,000 | 53.0% | 27.0% | 116,600 | $10.2B–$30.6B | ABS direct |
Oklahoma OK | South | 90,000 | 51.0% | 25.5% | 45,900 | $4.0B–$12.0B | interpolated |
Oregon OR | West | 105,000 | 51.0% | 25.5% | 53,600 | $4.7B–$14.1B | ABS direct |
Pennsylvania PA | Northeast | 260,000 | 54.0% | 27.5% | 140,400 | $12.3B–$36.9B | ABS direct |
Rhode Island RI | Northeast | 30,000 | 52.0% | 26.5% | 15,600 | $1.4B–$4.1B | interpolated |
South Carolina SC | South | 105,000 | 52.0% | 27.0% | 54,600 | $4.8B–$14.3B | interpolated |
South Dakota SD | Midwest | 25,000 | 53.5% | 28.0% | 13,400 | $1.2B–$3.5B | interpolated |
Tennessee TN | South | 130,000 | 50.5% | 25.0% | 65,700 | $5.7B–$17.2B | ABS direct |
Texas TX | South | 555,000 | 46.0% | 21.0% | 255,300 | $22.3B–$67.0B | ABS direct |
Utah UT | West | 90,000 | 42.0% | 18.0% | 37,800 | $3.3B–$9.9B | interpolated |
Vermont VT | Northeast | 22,000 | 55.0% | 30.0% | 12,100 | $1.1B–$3.2B | interpolated |
Virginia VA | South | 180,000 | 50.0% | 24.5% | 90,000 | $7.9B–$23.6B | ABS direct |
Washington WA | West | 175,000 | 48.0% | 22.5% | 84,000 | $7.3B–$22.0B | ABS direct |
West Virginia WV | South | 35,000 | 56.0% | 30.5% | 19,600 | $1.7B–$5.1B | interpolated |
Wisconsin WI | Midwest | 130,000 | 52.5% | 27.0% | 68,300 | $6.0B–$17.9B | ABS direct |
Wyoming WY | West | 20,000 | 51.0% | 26.5% | 10,200 | $0.9B–$2.7B | interpolated |
Wealth-range column is derived: boomer-owned firms × 35% × [$250K, $750K]. Rounded to the nearest $100M. State names link to their broker directory via the interactive map's detail panel.
License
Free to use — with attribution.
The dataset, this methodology page, and the SVG map are all released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. You can adapt, remix, and republish for any purpose including commercial, as long as you credit Your Exit Path and link back to yourexitpath.com/silver-tsunami.
Recommended citation
Silver Tsunami State Business Ownership Dataset (Your Exit Path, 2026). Retrieved from https://yourexitpath.com/silver-tsunami. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
Topic cluster
How to Sell a Business
The seller's playbook — from the decision to sell through choosing a broker, negotiating LOI, and closing.
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10-step sales process
What actually happens between decision-to-sell and closing — 9-12 month timeline, deliverables per step.
24-month pre-sale readiness
The prep window that materially moves your exit valuation — books, KPIs, concentration, management depth.
Sold businesses — market data
Median SDE and EBITDA multiples by industry, days-to-close, and buyer-type mix.
When should I sell my business?
The four signals that tell you the timing is right, and the three that mean waiting is more valuable.
How long does selling a business take?
9-12 months is typical. Here's what each phase eats and where deals actually stall.
Business sale timeline dataset
Phase-by-phase duration bands segmented by preparation quality. Free CC BY 4.0 with CSV / JSON / SVG downloads.
Silver Tsunami — U.S. exit map
Interactive tile-grid map of U.S. business ownership by owner age plus estimated trapped-wealth ranges by state. Free CC BY 4.0 with CSV / JSON / SVG downloads.
Seller FAQ
20 questions every first-time Main Street seller asks about brokers, valuation, taxes, and confidentiality.
How much is my business worth?
Free, 5-minute, industry-calibrated valuation range plus Exit Readiness Score.
Use the data on your business
What's your Exit Readiness Score?
The macro trend is the backdrop. Whether your specific business trades at the top of its industry range or the bottom is a much narrower question — and the readiness score answers it in five minutes.