Free interactive tool · CC BY 4.0
Predict my
buyer.
Reviewed by Rob Ismoilov · M&A AdvisorThe predictor
Enter four inputs. See who's likely buying.
The model updates as you type. Every buyer type carries a real published sweet-spot range and industry-affinity profile; the chart shows how your inputs compare against each. Numbers reflect relative likelihood of closing, not what your business will fetch.
Your business
Tell us four things.
Everything updates live as you type. Nothing is submitted or stored — the model runs entirely in your browser.
Annual owner cash flow — net income + owner comp + interest + depreciation + one-time addbacks.
Trailing 12 months. Only meaningfully affects the PE Platform score.
Used to route the broker match — doesn't change the probability model.
Your most-likely buyer
A regional competitor buying a book of business, customers, and technicians.
Probability distribution
Across the five Main Street buyer types.
Bars normalised to sum to 100%. A near-zero bar doesn't mean "impossible" — it means the buyer type rarely closes on a business with this profile.
Why these three
Full breakdown of the top three.
Every buyer type's raw score is a sum of the same four factors, normalised so the five probabilities add to 100%. Here's what moved each of the top three either up or down.
#1 · 30% probability
Strategic / regional competitor
Strategic acquirers are already in your industry — either a bigger regional competitor rolling up market share or an adjacent business expanding services. They pay for customer overlap, gross margin, and technician retention. Deals close fast because they know the business already. Common in HVAC, plumbing, electrical, roofing, and restoration.
- Typical multiple
Typical SDE multiple
2.8×–4.0×
Days to close
90–150 days
Financing
Cash from balance sheet or bank line of credit; occasional seller note for indemnification.
Factor breakdown
Base market presence
Strategic averages roughly 25% of Main Street closings before per-deal adjustments.
Industry fit
HVAC & refrigeration services is a strong preferred vertical for this buyer type.
SDE size fit
$600K SDE sits inside this buyer's $250K–$3M sweet spot.
#2 · 29% probability
PE consolidator (bolt-on to existing platform)
PE consolidators are already running a platform in your industry and are looking for tuck-in acquisitions to add scale, geographic reach, or capability. They're active in HVAC, plumbing, dental, veterinary, home health, restoration, and IT services. They pay premium multiples but expect institutional-quality financials, tech-forward operations, and technicians willing to stay.
- Typical multiple
Typical SDE multiple
3.5×–5.5×
Days to close
90–150 days
Financing
Cash + rollover equity from the seller (typical 10–20%). Fast close because the platform has PE dry powder ready.
Factor breakdown
Base market presence
PE consolidator averages roughly 20% of Main Street closings before per-deal adjustments.
Industry fit
HVAC & refrigeration services is a strong preferred vertical for this buyer type.
SDE size fit
$600K SDE sits inside this buyer's $500K–$3M sweet spot.
#3 · 21% probability
Search fund (solo acquirer with institutional capital)
Search funds are individual searchers (usually MBA graduates) backed by 10–15 institutional investors. They target one business, buy it, and run it as CEO for 7–10 years. They gravitate to recurring-revenue B2B businesses — IT services, distribution, accounting, insurance agencies, niche manufacturing. They pay premium multiples for management-ready businesses and are known for thoughtful, patient diligence.
- Typical multiple
Typical SDE multiple
3.0×–5.0×
Days to close
120–210 days
Financing
Investor equity + bank debt (often SBA-eligible). Structured with strong buyer-side protections.
Factor breakdown
Base market presence
Search fund averages roughly 15% of Main Street closings before per-deal adjustments.
Industry fit
HVAC & refrigeration services is a good fit for this buyer type.
SDE size fit
$600K SDE sits inside this buyer's $500K–$2M sweet spot.
The five buyer types
Every Main Street exit ends with one of these.
The model treats these five as the complete universe of Main Street acquirers. Sub-categories exist (family offices, franchise operators, ESOPs), but their deal economics look enough like one of the five below that collapsing them keeps the model transparent without losing signal.
$100K–$500K SDE sweet spot
Individual owner-operator (SBA-financed)
A single acquirer buying to operate the business, typically with SBA 7(a) financing.
- Multiple
- 2.0×–3.0× SDE
- Days to close
- 120–180 days
- Base weight
- 30
$250K–$3M SDE sweet spot
Strategic / regional competitor
A regional competitor buying a book of business, customers, and technicians.
- Multiple
- 2.8×–4.0× SDE
- Days to close
- 90–150 days
- Base weight
- 25
$500K–$2M SDE sweet spot
Search fund (solo acquirer with institutional capital)
A single searcher backed by 10–15 institutional investors acquiring a business to run for 7–10 years.
- Multiple
- 3.0×–5.0× SDE
- Days to close
- 120–210 days
- Base weight
- 15
$500K–$3M SDE sweet spot
PE consolidator (bolt-on to existing platform)
A PE-backed platform adding another location or region to an established roll-up thesis.
- Multiple
- 3.5×–5.5× SDE
- Days to close
- 90–150 days
- Base weight
- 20
$1.5M–$8M SDE sweet spot ($1M+ EBITDA)
PE platform (new platform investment)
A PE firm buying an established business to build a new roll-up platform around it.
- Multiple
- 5.0×–8.0× SDE
- Days to close
- 150–240 days
- Base weight
- 10
Methodology · four factors
How the model gets to the number.
The formula is deliberately simple so every prediction is auditable. Base market presence + industry fit + SDE size fit + (for PE Platform) revenue fit, clamped to a 0-100 raw score per buyer type, then normalised across all five so probabilities sum to exactly 100%.
Additive score across four factors (base market presence + industry fit + SDE size fit + revenue fit for PE Platform), normalised so buyer-type probabilities sum to 100%. Industry affinities calibrated from IBBA Market Pulse buyer-type mix, BizBuySell Insight Report closing patterns, and SBA 7(a) individual-buyer transaction data. SDE sweet-spots calibrated to published range guidance from PE firms and search-fund investment thesis papers.
Formula
raw[bt] = baseWeight[bt]
+ industryAffinity[bt][industry]
+ sdeAffinity(bt, sde)
+ revenueModifier(bt, revenue) // pe_platform only
clamped[bt] = clamp(raw[bt], 0, 100)
probability[bt] = clamped[bt] / sum(clamped) * 100
// rounded via largest-remainder so probabilities
// sum to exactly 100%Sources
- IBBA Market Pulse (quarterly)International Business Brokers Association
- BizBuySell Insight Report (quarterly)BizBuySell
- SBA 7(a) Loan Program public dataU.S. Small Business Administration
- State of Owner ReadinessExit Planning Institute
- Stanford Search Fund StudyStanford Graduate School of Business
Model definition, buyer-type profiles, and the industry-affinity matrix are released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer.
Predict My Buyer — Main Street Buyer-Type Probability Model (Your Exit Path, 2026). Retrieved from https://yourexitpath.com/predict-my-buyer. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
What this model is
A defensible signal of which buyer type is most likely to close on a business with a given profile. Covers 32 industries across 5 buyer types = 160 affinity cells.
What it isn't
A valuation. Multiple ranges shown per buyer type reflect typical bands, not what any specific business will fetch. Financial cleanliness, owner-dependency, and customer concentration move the multiple far more than geography or industry.
What to do with it
Use the top-ranked buyer type to filter your broker search — a broker with an active SBA-buyer roster is a different pick than one who runs competitive PE processes. Same seller, different broker for different outcomes.
Next steps
Turn the prediction into a move.
Who is buying my business?
See the specific named institutional buyers in your industry × state × revenue band pool — PE platforms, strategics, franchisors, consolidators, search funds.
ContinueGet matched to a broker
A 3-minute match form ranks brokers for your industry, state, and deal size. The match respects the buyer-type profile from the predictor above.
ContinueFree exit calculator
Industry-calibrated SDE + EBITDA valuation range plus a five-factor readiness score. Five minutes, no signup.
ContinueTopic cluster
Business Valuation
How buyers actually price Main Street businesses — SDE and EBITDA multiples, industry benchmarks, and the eight factors that move the number.
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Business sale multiples dataset
22-industry benchmark table with SDE + EBITDA multiple ranges, days-to-close, and primary buyer types. Free CC BY 4.0 with CSV / JSON / SVG downloads.
Buyer Demand Index
0-100 composite Buyer Demand Score for 150 (metro × industry) tuples across the top 25 U.S. metros and six Main Street industries. Free CC BY 4.0 with CSV / JSON / SVG downloads.
Sellability score
Score across the five factors buyers actually diligence — financials, management, concentration, structure, dependence.
Net proceeds waterfall
Headline price → cash at close after taxes, fees, and seller-note timing.
Market-wide multiple benchmarks
P25–P75 SDE and EBITDA ranges by industry, sourced from IBBA + BizBuySell.
Industry-specific multiples
Per-vertical valuation multiples, active buyers, and exit playbooks across 200+ Main Street industries.
From probability to actual buyer
Get matched to a broker who runs deals with your top buyer type.
The probability model tells you who's likely to close. The right broker knows the specific ones actively looking right now. Three-minute match form, free, vetted advisors only.