Methodology
How the demand score
is computed.
Reviewed by Rob Ismoilov · M&A AdvisorThe formula
One composite. Four inputs.
Every input is normalised to a 0-100 subscore. The final composite is a weighted average, clamped to [0, 100], and bucketed for readability.
demandScore = 0.40 × metroVitality
+ 0.25 × peDensity
+ 0.25 × industryAppetite
+ 0.10 × concentration
// Rounded to nearest integer, clamped to [0, 100]
Buckets:
≥ 80 → VERY HOT Multiple active buyers per deal
70–79 → HOT Active roll-up interest
55–69 → WARM Steady buyer demand
40–54 → COOL Buyer-selective market
< 40 → COLD Individual-buyer marketMetro Vitality
0-100 · MSA-level
Census PEP · HUD BPS
Blends normalised population change 2020 → 2023 with residential building permits per 10K residents. The transform is: growthNorm = clamp((pct + 4) × 8, 0, 100); permitsNorm = clamp(permits / 1.2, 0, 100); vitality = 0.55 × growthNorm + 0.45 × permitsNorm.
Census PEP publishes MSA estimates annually with margin of error typically under 1% for top-25 metros. HUD BPS is a monthly survey with ~5% response lag; we use trailing-12-month totals.
PE / Investor Density
0-100 · state-level
SBA SBIC · ACG
Composite index over SBA SBIC licensee count in the state, ACG chapter density, and recent LMM deal-flow signal from public press releases. State-level, so all metros in a given state share the subscore.
SBIC licensee counts are public and precise. ACG chapter density and LMM deal-flow are qualitative inputs. Confidence band: ±10 points at state level.
Industry Buyer Appetite
0-100 · national
IBBA Market Pulse · BizBuySell
National appetite score per industry from the IBBA Market Pulse practitioner survey (quarterly) + BizBuySell Insight Report listing-to-close acceleration + curated PE roll-up press. Every industry gets one national score; combined with a metro's other subscores at row-build time.
IBBA + BizBuySell are practitioner surveys, not official statistics. Confidence band: ±5 points at national industry level.
Local Industry Concentration
0-100 · metro × industry
Census CBP 2022
MSA establishment count for the industry's NAICS prefix, adjusted for climate (HVAC in Phoenix), housing age (plumbing in Boston), car dependence (auto repair in Detroit), and tourism (restaurants in Miami). Kept as an audit-friendly matrix, not a black-box model.
Census CBP is precise at the county level; MSA rollups introduce minor edge cases for cross-state metros (NYC, DC, Chicago). Confidence band: ±8 points.
Two subscores are national (industry appetite) or state-level (PE density), not metro-level. This is intentional — LMM deal appetite and PE licensee density aren't published cleanly at the MSA layer. The composite still varies row-to-row because vitality and concentration are both metro-specific, and the four components combine differently for every tuple. A journalist quoting the methodology should note the two national/state components.
Primary sources
7 sources — all public.
Government surveys (Census, HUD, SBA), trade associations (IBBA, BizBuySell, ACG). Everything on this page is reproducible from the URLs below.
Population Estimates Program (PEP), 2023 vintage
census-pepU.S. Census Bureau · 2023 estimates (published 2024)
Annual Metropolitan Statistical Area population estimates. Primary source for the 2020 → 2023 percent-change component of Metro Vitality.
Visit sourceBuilding Permits Survey (BPS)
hud-bpsU.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development / U.S. Census Bureau · Rolling 12-month, current vintage
Residential unit permits by MSA, aggregated to per-10K-population intensity. Primary source for the housing permits component of Metro Vitality.
Visit sourceCounty Business Patterns (CBP), 2022
census-cbpU.S. Census Bureau · 2022 reference year (published 2024)
Establishment counts by county + NAICS, aggregated to the MSA. Primary input into the Local Industry Concentration subscore.
Visit sourceSBIC Licensee Directory
sba-sbicU.S. Small Business Administration · Public licensee list, current
Complete list of Small Business Investment Companies licensed by the SBA. Primary count feeding the PE / Investor Density subscore.
Visit sourceChapter Directory
acgAssociation for Corporate Growth (ACG) · Current
ACG chapter density and reported DealMAX activity. Secondary input into PE / Investor Density.
Visit sourceMarket Pulse (quarterly)
ibbaInternational Business Brokers Association · Quarterly, 2025–2026
Practitioner survey of transacted Main Street multiples and buyer types. Primary input into the Industry Buyer Appetite subscore and the per-industry SDE multiple range.
Visit sourceInsight Report (quarterly)
bizbuysellBizBuySell · Quarterly, 2025–2026
Median sale price + revenue + cash flow across BizBuySell listings and closings. Cross-check for industry-level buyer-appetite direction.
Visit sourceMetro-level inputs
The 25 metros + their raw inputs.
The population, permits, and computed vitality subscore per MSA. Cross-reference against the state-level PE density and industry-level appetite tables below to reconstruct any of the 150 tuple scores.
| Metro | State | Pop 2023 | Growth % | Permits / 10K | Vitality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA | GA | 6,310,000 | +3.8% | 75 | 62 |
Austin Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX | TX | 2,470,000 | +7.6% | 118 | 95 |
Baltimore Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD | MD | 2,830,000 | -0.8% | 20 | 22 |
Boston Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | MA | 4,910,000 | +0.1% | 25 | 27 |
Charlotte Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC | NC | 2,800,000 | +5.6% | 92 | 77 |
Chicago Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI | IL | 9,260,000 | -1.6% | 21 | 18 |
Dallas Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX | TX | 8,100,000 | +4.9% | 92 | 74 |
Denver Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO | CO | 3,010,000 | +2.0% | 55 | 47 |
Detroit Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI | MI | 4,340,000 | -1.1% | 14 | 18 |
Houston Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX | TX | 7,500,000 | +3.7% | 88 | 67 |
Los Angeles Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | CA | 12,800,000 | -2.8% | 17 | 12 |
Miami Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL | FL | 6,260,000 | +2.2% | 44 | 44 |
Minneapolis Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI | MN | 3,710,000 | +0.4% | 32 | 31 |
New York New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | NY | 19,500,000 | -3.5% | 18 | 9 |
Orlando Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | FL | 2,820,000 | +5.1% | 84 | 72 |
Philadelphia Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD | PA | 6,240,000 | -0.4% | 22 | 24 |
Phoenix Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ | AZ | 5,070,000 | +5.4% | 96 | 77 |
Portland Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA | OR | 2,510,000 | -0.3% | 27 | 26 |
Riverside Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA | CA | 4,680,000 | +2.1% | 34 | 40 |
San Antonio San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX | TX | 2,650,000 | +4.2% | 82 | 67 |
San Diego San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA | CA | 3,290,000 | -0.6% | 26 | 25 |
San Francisco San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA | CA | 4,570,000 | -3.2% | 19 | 11 |
Seattle Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA | WA | 4,060,000 | +1.5% | 41 | 40 |
Tampa Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | FL | 3,290,000 | +4.9% | 78 | 68 |
Washington Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV | DC | 6,400,000 | +0.9% | 36 | 35 |
State-level inputs
PE / Investor Density by state.
The 17 states that host the 25 metros. SBIC licensee counts are direct from the SBA public licensee directory; the composite score also reflects ACG chapter density and recent LMM deal-flow signal.
| State | SBIC licensees | PE density subscore |
|---|---|---|
| NY | 42 | 95 |
| CA | 38 | 92 |
| MA | 18 | 88 |
| IL | 16 | 82 |
| TX | 22 | 80 |
| PA | 10 | 68 |
| GA | 9 | 66 |
| NC | 7 | 62 |
| FL | 8 | 61 |
| CO | 6 | 59 |
| MN | 6 | 58 |
| WA | 6 | 58 |
| MD | 5 | 55 |
| DC | 4 | 54 |
| OR | 3 | 47 |
| AZ | 3 | 46 |
| MI | 4 | 45 |
Industry-level inputs
National appetite per vertical.
Each Main Street industry gets one national appetite score. Multiplied against the metro-level and state- level components to compute a per-tuple final score.
| Industry | Appetite | SDE multiple | Primary buyer |
|---|---|---|---|
HVAC & refrigeration services NAICS 23822 | 92 | 2.5×–4.5× | PE-backed platform roll-ups |
Plumbing services NAICS 23822 | 88 | 2.4×–4.2× | PE-backed platform roll-ups + strategic acquirers |
Electrical contracting services NAICS 23821 | 84 | 2.5×–4.5× | PE platforms + strategic acquirers (utility-adjacent) |
Landscaping & lawn care services NAICS 56173 | 74 | 2.0×–3.5× | PE consolidators + regional strategics |
Automotive repair & maintenance shops NAICS 8111 | 68 | 2.0×–3.2× | Individual buyers + regional strategics |
Restaurants & food service NAICS 7225 | 42 | 1.5×–2.6× | Individual buyers + franchise operators |
License
Free to use — with attribution.
The dataset, methodology, and heatmap SVG are released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International. Reuse, adapt, and republish for any purpose (including commercial) with credit and a link back to yourexitpath.com/buyer-demand.
Recommended citation
Main Street Buyer Demand Index (Your Exit Path, 2026). Retrieved from https://yourexitpath.com/buyer-demand. Licensed CC BY 4.0.
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